Are Women Winning or Losing in the U.S. Economy?

I felt a bit whiplashed last week. First, I spotted a headline alerting me to the fact that women now make up a slight majority of the U.S. workforce. That’s good news, right?

Then I saw new data showing that women accounted for all of the decline in the labor force in July. That’s definitely not good news.

Amid all the facts and figures intended to tell us whether women are making strides or losing ground, it can be surprisingly difficult to understand what’s actually going on. So let’s take a closer look.

Men have historically dominated the paid labor market. In the early 1990s, men held almost 7 million more jobs than women. But in recent decades, that gap has dwindled. 

It closed after the 2008 financial crisis, when women briefly held more payroll jobs than men. That happened again around late 2019 and into 2020. And now, in 2026, we’ve hit that mark afresh, with women holding slightly more payroll jobs than men. 

On the surface, that might sound like good news, but there’s a lot more to the picture. So what exactly is going on?

Part of the answer lies in a fundamental shift in the American economy. Over time, it’s moved away from industries that have historically employed (and still employ) large numbers of men, and toward service industries that employ large numbers of women.

Women make up a majority of workers in education and health services, for example. Men continue to dominate industries like construction, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing. As healthcare, education and other service-sector jobs have grown, the composition of the workforce has changed in tandem.

Women reaching 50% of payroll employment isn’t therefore simply a story about more women entering the workforce. It’s a story about the kinds of jobs the American economy now creates and where demand for work is growing.

But there’s something else going on, too.

In the past, some swings in the gender employment gap could be explained by the business cycle. Male-dominated industries such as manufacturing and construction tend to be more cyclical, which helps explain why men suffered particularly steep job losses during the Great Recession of 2008 and 2009 and why women briefly overtook them on payrolls. In 2026, however, things appear to be different. 

According to an analysis by Indeed published earlier this year, the gender jobs gap is narrowing not just because more women are working, and not because we’re in an economic recession (we’re not), but because male employment has been weakening.

According to the analysis, “The gender gap in employment is not disappearing because women have simply entered the workforce in greater numbers. It is disappearing because men are participating less.”

According to the American Institute for Boys and Men, a non-partisan think tank, male labor force participation has fallen from 87% in 1948 to 68% today. 

There isn’t a single explanation for that drop. Demographics certainly play a role. America is older than it was 25 years ago, and older men are less likely to be working. More young men are also staying in school longer before entering the workforce. But economists point to deeper structural forces, too. Globalization and automation have hollowed out many of the middle-skill jobs that once offered stable careers for men without college degrees. 

At the same time, women have pulled ahead educationally. In 2024, 47% of U.S. women aged 25 to 34 had a bachelor’s degree, compared to just 37% of men. 

This isn't just a question of women pulling ahead either though. It's that the labor market itself has changed in ways that have left many men behind. 

So, no. Women becoming a majority of workers isn't quite the straightforward good-news story the headline might suggest.

Then we get to that second data point. According to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, women accounted for all of the decline in the labor force in July. Some 165,000 women aged 20 and older left the labor force, while men's participation was essentially unchanged.

What’s particularly concerning about this, is that it isn't just one bad month. Since January, there are 845,000 fewer women in the labor force, compared with 406,000 fewer men, according to an analysis by the National Women’s Law Center.

“[This is] a sign that too many women are being pushed to the sidelines,” said Jasmine Tucker, vice president of research at NWLC. “Women are leaving the labor force in alarming numbers, and many who remain employed are underemployed,” she added. 

What’s important to understand here is that none of these numbers contradict each other. They are, in fact, measuring very different things.

Women holding slightly more than half of payroll jobs tells us where we are after decades of change in women's work and evolution in the American economy. The recent job and labor-force numbers, meanwhile, tell us in which direction we're moving. And there’s one more important distinction to note: Losing a job and leaving the labor force are not the same thing.

The labor force includes people who are working or actively looking for work. So 165,000 women leaving the labor force does not mean 165,000 women were fired or had their roles eliminated. It means there were 165,000 fewer women working or looking for work.

Some may have lost jobs and stopped searching. Others may have left for caregiving, school, retirement or any number of other reasons. The data alone can't tell us why — and that “why” is, of course, critically important to understanding what's actually going on. 

So are women winning or losing? On the one hand, women have clearly become indispensable to the American economy and now hold roughly half of its payroll jobs. That’s certainly not a bad thing. But the short-term trajectory — the growing numbers of women dropping out — is definitely troubling. 

Of course, progress never has been, and likely never will be, a straight line. The long-term trend is one of remarkable advancement. The short-term data suggest new vulnerabilities are emerging. Understanding the economy means holding both of these truths in your head at the same time.